The latest technical analysis from CobraVanguard shows the potential for significant strength in Toncoin (TON), following the formation of a falling wedge pattern on the daily chart.
This pattern is known as a bullish indicator because it indicates price consolidation that could potentially end in an upward trend reversal.
As of mid-September, the altcoin price is still moving within the wedge pattern, with projections of testing the support area around $3.0–$3.05.
If the price is able to maintain this level and then break through the wedge’s resistance line, the target for upside is around $3.71. This level is also a crucial resistance zone, considered to test buyers’ strength in pushing the price higher.
Toncoin derivatives data signals strong market confidence
This technical optimism is reinforced by derivatives data from CoinGlass. The daily trading volume of Toncoin surged 87.08% to $250.58 million.
Meanwhile, open interest also increased 5.72% to $373.27 million. This figure indicates a growing number of open contracts, reflecting continued interest from market participants.
Furthermore, data from Binance shows the long/short ratio for the TON/USDT pair is at 2.1918. This means that the number of accounts with long positions is more than double the number of short positions, indicating the majority of traders’ confidence in the potential for price increases.
The surge in volume, increasing open interest, and the dominance of long positions are strong signals that the market is preparing for a possible breakout.
Analysts believe this indicates that the TON altcoin has sufficient liquidity to support more aggressive price movements in the near future.
Treasury strategy and fundamental factors
In addition to technical and derivative factors, Toncoin’s fundamentals also receive significant support from institutional strategies.
On September 13, 2025, the TON Foundation partnered with Kingsway Capital to launch a $780 million Institutional Treasury Launch through a private placement.
Of the total funds, the treasury will manage $713 million in TON and $67 million in cash. The primary goal of this move is to reduce the circulating supply while maintaining price stability through staking.
This model is often compared to Strategy’s Bitcoin accumulation strategy, but with the added advantage of staking returns and the support of the Telegram ecosystem, which has over 1 billion users.
With this mechanism, the TON Foundation seeks to reduce selling pressure in the market while incentivizing investors to hold their assets longer.