Ethereum is once again testing investor confidence as it is trading in a tight range near record levels. September, a month often marked by bearish sentiment in crypto, has placed Ethereum at the center of market attention.
With spot, futures, and on-chain activity all hitting highs, the question now is whether ETH can finally break past $5,000.
Spot and futures markets show growing strength
Since early August, Ethereum has quietly overtaken Bitcoin in spot trading share. ETH now holds 32.9% of spot market activity compared to Bitcoin’s 32.6%.
At its peak, Ethereum controlled 41% of the market, generating $480 billion in spot volume against Bitcoin’s $400 billion.
Ethereum futures volumes surpassed Bitcoin in mid-July and reached a record $3.08 trillion in August.
Open interest climbed close to $59 billion, underlining steady investor demand and stronger positioning from traders.
This shift highlights Ethereum’s growing role as an alternative benchmark to Bitcoin. The surge in derivatives activity suggests both increasing confidence and hedging interest as ETH approaches critical price levels.
On-chain demand and ETFs drive momentum
Ethereum’s on-chain activity is also expanding at a rapid pace. DeFi protocols currently hold $258 billion, while decentralized exchanges have processed $140 billion in trading volume.
Monthly active addresses stand at 51.7 million, reinforcing Ethereum’s status as the most used blockchain.
At the same time, ETH balances on centralized exchanges have dropped to a three-year low. This signals stronger holding behavior among investors and reduced selling pressure.
Much of this year’s rally has been fueled by exchange-traded funds. In 2025 alone, Ethereum ETFs have attracted nearly $10 billion in net inflows.
Spot ETF volume is nearing $200 billion, with ETFs now making up 16% of all ETH spot trading.
BlackRock’s ETHA fund dominates this market, accounting for 74% of ETF trading activity. After six straight days of outflows, the fund brought in $44.2 million in inflows today, the only ETH ETF to record new demand.
Key price levels in focus
Ethereum has been moving between resistance and support levels since August. The ceiling remains at $4,956, the mark that halted the last rally.
On the downside, $4,310 is the key floor, with $4,250 acting as the critical pivot. A drop below this level could trigger tests at $4,000 or even $3,874, both aligned with Fibonacci retracement levels and past reaction zones.
Despite the risk, Ethereum’s 200-day simple and exponential moving averages remain on an upward path. History shows ETH rarely stays below these averages during strong bull markets, offering bulls a safety net.
If buyers manage to clear $5,000, momentum could accelerate quickly. Targets at $5,500 and even $6,000 may come into play as ETF inflows, futures demand, and strong on-chain metrics combine to reinforce Ethereum’s rally.