Cardano (ADA) is once again under the spotlight as bulls try to push the token beyond a crucial resistance level, with fresh technical signals and broader market optimism building a compelling case for a potential breakout.
After weeks of choppy consolidation, ADA has started to show signs of life, buoyed by rising trading volume, recovering on-chain metrics, and surging investor interest fueled by growing ETF speculation.
Although the broader crypto market has rallied in recent days, with Bitcoin (BTC) climbing above $109,000 and Ethereum (ETH) pushing past $2,500, Cardano’s price action remains uniquely positioned at a technical crossroads that could define its short-term trajectory.
Bulls defend key support as ADA hovers near breakout zone
Over the past week, Cardano’s price has floated within a narrow band between $0.58 and $0.43, trying to establish a foothold above the upper boundary of a falling channel pattern that has defined its structure since May.
Although ADA pulled back by nearly 1% on Friday, the token has still added more than 10% over the past few days, showing signs of recovering momentum even amid temporary resistance.
The attempt to break above the falling channel has brought attention to the $0.60 mark, which remains a critical barrier as bulls aim to target the May 19 low at $0.71 if upside volume accelerates.
So far, the intraday high of $0.6119 set on Thursday signals growing bullish intent, although the inability to hold above that level suggests overhead supply continues to limit aggressive follow-through.
On-chain data signals increased buying pressure
One of the clearest signs that the sentiment around Cardano is improving comes from the growing number of ADA tokens now in profit, with on-chain data from Santiment showing an increase of 2.34 billion ADA so far in July.
This rise has brought the total supply in profit to over 18.2 billion tokens, a significant jump from just 15.89 billion three days earlier, confirming that recent price recovery is restoring investor confidence.
While this increase may encourage more buying as holders gain conviction, analysts caution that such spikes in profit-taking zones can also lead to near-term sell pressure as traders lock in gains.
Nonetheless, the overall trend reflects a strengthening base that could support higher prices if the $0.60 resistance is flipped into support in the coming sessions.
Technical indicators flash mixed but improving signals
The technical outlook for Cardano is showing signs of bullish momentum building beneath the surface, despite the absence of a decisive breakout so far.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has rebounded to above 45, indicating improving strength although not yet in full bullish territory, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram has shown a steady increase in green bars.
Although the MACD and its signal line remain in negative territory, the upward trend in momentum suggests that ADA is gaining traction and could soon flash a clear trend reversal signal.
Cardano’s ability to close the day above Thursday’s opening price of $0.5840 will be closely watched, as such a move could reinforce bullish sentiment and provide confirmation of breakout intent.
Cardano ETF speculation is boosting ADA’s institutional appeal
Fueling the bullish narrative is the recent surge in Cardano ETF approval odds, which have climbed to 84% on Polymarket prediction market, marking an all-time high.
This spike reflects growing institutional interest in ADA, especially as the broader crypto ETF conversation gains momentum in regulatory circles, with traders now eagerly awaiting formal filings or regulatory updates.
Although nothing is guaranteed, the optimism around a potential ADA spot ETF has reignited speculative appetite and further contributed to the positive shift in short-term price dynamics.
Cardano price faces moment of truth at $0.60
All eyes are now on ADA’s ability to establish a clear and sustained breakout above $0.60, a level that continues to act as a major inflection point for the token’s next move.
If bulls succeed, momentum could carry ADA toward $0.66, and possibly even retest the $0.70 to $0.71 zone, which aligns with the previous structural pivot seen in May.
On the other hand, failure to hold the $0.5840–$0.58 support range could trigger renewed downside, with $0.5419 emerging as the next critical support level.
In the coming days, traders will need to watch closing prices, volume trends, and macro sentiment closely, as the Cardano price balances between breakout euphoria and potential rejection.
While the technical picture remains mixed, the building momentum, ETF optimism, and increased on-chain strength suggest that ADA may finally be preparing to escape the sidelines if bulls can push through at the right moment.