The Cardano price has entered a sensitive redistribution phase, with on-chain data showing that most transactions are being made at a loss.
The latest figures highlight a negative turn in Cardano’s Network Realized Profit/Loss (NPL), signaling that traders are moving coins below their previous purchase prices.
This kind of movement often reflects capitulation flows, where weaker holders exit the market while long-term investors prepare to re-enter at lower prices.
Crypto market analyst Teddy noted that both NPL and the Profit/Loss Transaction Ratio have slipped into negative territory.
When this alignment occurs, it typically reflects a market flush-out, where emotion-driven selling dominates.
Historically, such conditions have marked the point where market fear starts to stabilize and accumulation quietly begins.
At the same time, community sentiment remains divided. While broader crowd sentiment leans bearish, momentum profiles hint at a possible recovery setup if certain support levels hold.
RSI signals weak momentum, nearing the oversold zone
Cardano is currently trading near $0.641, sitting close to a crucial long-term support zone around $0.60. The Relative Strength Index (RSI 14) stands at 43.17, showing weakened buying momentum.
This figure remains below the neutral 50 mark, confirming subdued market confidence. The last time RSI levels hovered in this range was in mid-2024, right before a short-lived rebound.
If the indicator dips further toward 40, it could signal an oversold condition, often a sign that selling pressure may soon ease. Such conditions tend to attract short-term traders looking for bounce opportunities.
MACD confirms bearish trend but suggests approaching stability
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line has crossed below the signal line, confirming a bearish crossover. With histogram bars turning negative, momentum is still tilted toward sellers.
However, if ADA sustains its position above $0.60 and reclaims $0.67, it may set the stage for a recovery toward $0.76–$0.80.
Failure to hold above $0.59 could lead to a deeper correction toward $0.50, placing Cardano in a critical make-or-break phase for its next crypto market cycle.