XRP is fast approaching a pivotal moment as both its technical chart and broader market sentiment point toward a possible explosive breakout.
After months of trading within a large symmetrical triangle, XRP now finds itself at a crucial price juncture, while speculation surrounding a potential spot ETF filing in July continues to intensify.
This convergence of technical compression and renewed investor optimism is placing XRP in the spotlight once again, just as regulatory clarity has begun to reshape its market outlook.
XRP price is coiling tightly as bulls ready for a breakout
XRP has been forming a symmetrical triangle pattern since its powerful rally in late 2024, a sign of tightening price action and building pressure.
Currently trading at $2.18, XRP is holding just above key support at $2.08, with resistance levels at $2.35 and $2.61 still intact and defining the upper bounds of its range.
The triangle structure reflects a phase of consolidation, where higher lows and lower highs are compressing price into a narrow range ahead of a potential breakout.
Market watchers are now closely observing whether bulls can flip the $2.35–$2.61 zone, which could open the door for a strong move to the upside.
While the price action has cooled slightly, with XRP down 0.5% over the last 24 hours, spot taker buy volume has remained resilient, suggesting that buyers continue to accumulate.
This consistent buy-side dominance, revealed through the 90-day Spot Taker CVD, indicates that traders are preparing for a bullish breakout rather than capitulating.
In addition, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) on the daily chart have turned bullish with the Relative Strength Index (RSI), currently around 50, offering room for more growth.
XRP ETF speculation adds fuel to investor excitement
Adding momentum to the technical setup is the growing buzz around a possible XRP spot ETF filing as early as July.
Ripple Labs, the blockchain-based payments firm behind XRP cryptocurrency, has taken a decisive step to conclude its prolonged legal dispute.
On Saturday, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse confirmed that the company has officially withdrawn its cross-appeal in the case, revealing that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) intends to do the same, aiming to resolve the matter on mutually agreeable terms.
This development comes shortly after Judge Analisa Torres rejected both parties’ requests for an indicative ruling, signaling that further litigation may no longer be necessary.
This has triggered widespread optimism in the crypto community, with predictions pointing to July as the likely window for XRP ETF filings.
Industry figures, including ETF Store President Nate Geraci, have echoed similar sentiments, suggesting that with legal uncertainty resolved, asset managers such as BlackRock may enter the scene.
XRP’s market cap, currently at $128.6 billion, and its circulating supply of over 59 billion tokens provide a strong foundation for ETF consideration, especially as investors look for diversified crypto exposure beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum.
If a filing does happen and garners early traction, Bloomberg’s James Seyffart believes that a first-week volume exceeding $85 million would be a significant indicator of investor demand.
Weak on-chain metrics raise sustainability concerns
Despite the bullish backdrop, XRP’s on-chain fundamentals have painted a more sobering picture, creating a potential disconnect between market optimism and network health.
Transaction counts have slumped to just 383,000 per day, among the lowest levels since March, while network growth has also slowed, falling to just 892 new addresses.
This drop in organic activity suggests that the current bullish sentiment may be driven more by speculation than by actual user demand or adoption.
Additionally, the NVT ratio — which measures market capitalization relative to transaction volume — has soared to an unusually high level of 4510, indicating that XRP may be overvalued from a utility standpoint.
Unless there is a rebound in both user activity and transaction volume, the sustainability of any breakout could face serious headwinds.
Scarcity narrative supports the long-term outlook
Still, XRP’s supply metrics could act as a counterbalance, as the Stock-to-Flow ratio has climbed sharply in recent weeks, highlighting growing scarcity in the market.
With new supply entering circulation at a slower rate and most of the maximum supply already in the market, XRP may benefit from long-term price support, especially if demand catches up.
However, scarcity alone cannot guarantee sustained gains, especially if fundamentals fail to keep pace with rising valuations.
The outlook hinges on breakout confirmation and ETF news
In the coming weeks, traders will be watching closely for a confirmed breakout above $2.35 with strong trading volume, as that could be the trigger for a new bullish wave.
Simultaneously, any official announcement of an XRP ETF filing — particularly from a major player like BlackRock — could amplify price momentum and expand investor interest.
Until then, XRP sits at a crossroads, with technical patterns, ETF excitement, and market speculation pushing it forward, even as underlying fundamentals urge caution.